Las Vegas Market Insights: Today's Update and Future Trends!
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This is a k u and v studios original program.
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The content of this program does not reflect the views or opinions of 91.5 Jazz and more the University of Nevada Las Vegas or the Board of Regents of the Nevada System of Higher Education. You see me?
Unknown Speaker 0:27
Good morning. This is Monique Buchanan, the host of the welcome home with Monique show. And on this show, I talk all things real estate. Listen, I want to thank you for tuning in. Well, hello, Las Vegas. It's Monique Buchanan, the host of the welcome home with Monique show. And we have yet another great show for you today. I'm going to bring on the most most is bestest. No, yeah, the best lender, I can say that hands down you guys that I've ever worked with in my decade of doing real estate. Now that is that is a big accomplishment. Let me tell you, I have quite a great team of lenders. But I've got to tell you, this lender right here, he doesn't know what no means, you know, and a lot of my buyers and Yeah, they'll tell you what the same thing, thank God for Mr. Valentino, because he does not know what no means. And that is imperative in this market. Because guess what, guys, we have competition. Again, me and Mr. Valentino have been warning you guys, as soon as the rates come down, we're gonna start seeing a bunch of competition out on properties. We've got lines of people waiting outside the house to get in. But before I go ahead and jump into it, let me go ahead and introduce you to Mr. Valentino with guaranteed rate. Hi, Anthony.
Unknown Speaker 1:43
Hey, Monique, how are you? Good morning to you. I'm
Unknown Speaker 1:45
great. Good morning. So you know not to, you know, say Hey, I told you guys, so but but we kind of did you know, it was coming. It's it's, it's already here in some parts of the valley. And what I'm talking about guys is we are seeing competition, we're seeing buyers fight for the same home already, even with the rates, where they're at which Anthony is going to go over, they've come down a little bit. And as soon as they trickle even a half a point down, it's like the floodgates are already creeping open. Am I right? Anthony?
Unknown Speaker 2:16
Yeah, that's exactly right. You know, just like everything in life goes in cycles, so does the economy and, and what we're seeing right now is just another cycle of the life of economics in the market, and more importantly, the heartbeat of the economy and how it's doing. And obviously, we know we're coming from the trenches of 2022, or inflation was at its highest and the nines. And you know, then, you know, since 2023, of June, you know, inflation has been hovering around the threes. And it's kind of been kind of stagnant for the past 12 months. But now we're starting to see some cracks in the arsenal that the economy was was trying to transpose and because of those cracks, there's going to be consequences in the market. And that's why you and I are here to help the consumer be educated and confident on where we're at and where we're going. Absolutely.
Unknown Speaker 3:10
And so, you know, I'm out there in the field. You guys, I do a lot of listings, but I do take some buyers out. And I have a team that also takes buyers out and I was out with one of my buyers in the southwest community and I'll tell you what, by the time I was in the home, showing them for the what we were in there for maybe three minutes, there was two other buyers outside waiting to get in, you know. So if you're sitting on your hands, this is not the time let me tell you because it's already on the wall. Homes are flying off the market. If you're if you're looking on Zillow or Trulia or my website, welcome home with monique.com you might like a house hard it and next thing you know you go back the next day and it's gone. Right Anthony? So especially if the home is under 500,000. Anywhere in the valley, it's going to fly off off the you know, off the market. My listings are all in escrow right now. You guys, my last five listings, I got those bad boys sold it in less than a week. Less than a week. Even my listing that was 750 Less than a week, two days, bam, gone. Why is that? Because we have only three weeks worth of inventory. What does that mean? Monique? That means if we were to stop right now and sell every single house that we had on the market, that's it three weeks, we're done. We have nothing else. That's how long it would take. We wouldn't have another house. Am I explaining that right, Anthony?
Unknown Speaker 4:33
Yeah, you are, you know, like I tell people, you know, who are her, you know, dabbling into homeownership, the next six months are going to be the most economical time to purchase if you're looking to purchase over the next five years. A lot of people they're on the sidelines and they're thinking, Well what if the prices come down? Or what if the rates come down or what if the inventory goes up? And I'm here to tell you based off of facts and stats Six. If you're looking to purchase a house within the next five years, the next six months will be the most economical, right?
Unknown Speaker 5:07
And now listen, you guys know that I've told you, I'm buying my own house, me and Anthony just got my property into escrow, I already sold my house, we're going to close on that bad boy on the 24th. But I found my house that I'm going to purchase and listen. So I'm not just preaching this to you guys. I'm actually doing it for myself, I you know, I know that if I don't move up and go ahead and upsize, you know, that's what I did, I went from a 2000 square foot home to a 3000 square foot single story, that's what I want to do, because I'm getting older, and I don't want to do stairs anymore. But I knew that this was my opportunity to score a great deal. Because within the next six months, I am confident that I would not be able to get the home that I have now that I'm in escrow with for the same price that I got it for, I also got $13,000 Out of the sellers pocket for my closing costs, and to buy my rate down. So what we're doing and like we've been doing right, Anthony, we are buying the rate down for our clients, okay, I negotiate the closing costs, Anthony buys down the rate with the money that I get from the seller. So my first year Anthony, what did we say is gonna be what 4.65 4.575
Unknown Speaker 6:16
is what your rates going to be. And what you're doing is you're two steps ahead of the competition. And you're doing that because of the knowledge that you have, you know, people, you know, they fear the unknown. And so the more they know than the less they fear, and the more confident they are. So when you're purchasing a house, you want to be confident on where we've been where we are and where we're going. And once you understand that, it's easier to make decisions like homeownership. In your case, you understand how the market in 2022, interest rates were raised twice, and 2023 interest rates for raise nine times and 2024, the Feds were expected to lower the rate four times now it's only going to be one time because of this stagnation that we're seeing with the inflation staying where it's at. And then in 2025, we're going to see upwards of six decreases. So when we look, the last 24 months, we've seen nothing but increases and the next 24 months, we're only going to see nothing but decreases. That gives you an insurance policy knowing that rates are doing nothing but going down. So by you being able to leverage the market by being able to get those closing costs, to be able to get the rate that's going to be in the next two years. Now. You're buying the house at the price now. But you're getting the rate that you're going to see in two years, right, and the seller is paying for it. So it's a win win situation for
Unknown Speaker 7:40
you. It is but that window is closing quickly. That's why I sold my house quick. I sold my house in three days. Am I right? And I sold that bad boy.
Unknown Speaker 7:52
Yeah, people think that's a misconception, oh, the rates are high. So this is, you know, we can go in and ask for a lot less for the purchase. And that's not the case, because of the supply. Not every single house that was bought over the last 36 months, has a rate of under 3%. It's free money, they're not going to sell that house, they're just going to leverage it right. So there's a housing shortage organically, because houses are just not coming on the market. They're just being rented out. And so that's just adding to the fuel to make this if this market, absolutely gangbusters in the next 24 months, what's gonna happen is, people are going to find out that the Californians that have no problem, you know, paying over because that's their market they're used to, whereas in Vegas, people will say see a house for 400,000 They're not going to pay 415 15,000 over the appraised value, whereas Californians are gonna be like, Yeah, I do that all the time,
Unknown Speaker 8:49
all day and actly. And that's exactly what happened already back in 2019, when I was taking my buyers out, and that's what we were seeing we were we were offering 20,000 over and still was not able to win the bids that's coming back. It's already hit the Southwest community. I mean, they're already starting to go was who was that I was talking to that said, the builders, the buyers are already telling the builders because the builders right now the new home builds have waiting list in the southwest community in certain parts of the city. So they were saying hey, the buyers are walking in and saying hey, keep your incentives move me up on the list. They're they're waiving the, you know, incentives like Hey, keep it well that move me up on the list. So that's how fast
Unknown Speaker 9:32
the markets change. Monique six months ago, the buyers were in the driver's seat telling the builders I want this and concessions I want premium law. I want this right. Yeah, and throwing the appliances make sure stainless steel I want to upgrade account. Now they're coming in and they're saying Excuse me, excuse me, because there's like 50 people online for the same house and they're going you don't have to offer me anything. You don't have to pay him By closing costs, I don't have to upgrade the law. I will take it as is. Let me get it. Yeah, absolutely. Right.
Unknown Speaker 10:05
Right. And if you just tuned in and this is Monique Buchanan, your local Las Vegas Real tour on with none other than Mr. Valentino with guaranteed rate, he is the lender that is on point every time going to get you to the finish line. That right. But anyways, let's jump back in, if you're just tuning in, what we're talking about is, we have a shortage of homes. Okay. So every single market is different, you guys. So if you're online, you're listening to YouTubers, and they're saying this, that and the next thing that they're talking about their market, which is completely different from our market, heck, communities are different, you're not going to have houses fly off the shelf as fast as they do maybe in Summerlin versus, you know, the east side or North Las Vegas, or wherever. So it just depends, you know, what community you're in. And, you know, how sought after that community is, if that makes sense. So, what Anthony also said is that most of us that own we bought, when the rates were really low. So a lot of us are not selling, we're sitting on it, or we're renting it out, that also contributes to why we have such a shortage of homes here in the Las Vegas Valley. So what does that mean? That means although the rates are high, honey, my sellers are still cleaning up. And, and we're still having multiple people come and try to buy the property because they understand as buyers, that these rates are going to come down. So let me go ahead and buy now. Right, and just refinance when the rates come down. Is that right? Anthony?
Unknown Speaker 11:35
Yeah, that's right in here for all the relevant people listening right now, where you got your aunt or uncle or your co worker going, I'm just going to wait. Because this, you know, I've seen this before. I'm good at the funk all that for you in a 22nd understanding of where we were, and where we're at, you know, right now 100, almost 100% of loans are fixed rates. You know, 99.9, when you look at the consensus, meaning everyone is in a in a safe in a very strict type of loan to where they had to go through strict and rigorous underwriting, it wasn't like 2007, where there was stated loans, interest only predatory balloon payments. And so now everyone's in a 30 year fix right to where, you know, they're, they're warm and safe and conservative than that. The second part is, back in 2007, and eight, when you saw this exodus of evaporation of equity, that's because there was not regulations like there is today to where the lender was in cahoots with the appraiser. Whereas now, everything has red tape and guidelines and regulations. So you're not going to see those big swings like he did in 2007. Today. Another part is, you know, you have the Cares Act that made it to where back in 2007, the banks can foreclose on you, or short sell within a moment's notice. Whereas now, if someone gets in financial despair, they have to either offer you a forbearance, deferment or modification. So we're not going to see this exodus of people who if they get in a financial spot, they're going to lose their house. And on top of that, you have historically low rates, like you just talked about. So when you look at what happened in 2007, how there was predatory lending interest only balloon payments, not good underwriting underwater values compared to now where everyone's in a 30 year fixed, they have the government to be able to bail them out. They have all these checks and measures in place, you're not going to see any massive changes that are going to affect the price of the house. So if you're waiting for the price of the house to go down, or if you're waiting for more opportunity, or more more inventory, you're gonna wait for the next five years until you realize that yet it was never coming. Right.
Unknown Speaker 13:59
You missed the boat. And you missed the boat. Yeah, here's another thing here in the Las Vegas Valley. Like I say all the time. There's so much going on and coming into our city, what would make people think that we're gonna go down to $300,000 homes, again, $200,000 homes again, I don't understand the thought process on that. We've got all these sports teams coming in California is pouring in, you know, and like you said, they're used to million dollar homes only being, you know, 1800 square feet. And they're fine with it. So it's like, I don't understand and not to be funny, but I'm still waiting because everybody said the crash was going to happen. Well, we're still waiting on this crash. And while we're waiting, the prices are going up. And I haven't seen any signs. And I don't expect any crash. These prices are going up. You guys hear us? Do not miss your opportunity. If you live here in Las Vegas. I hate to think about people that live here that's been living here have not purchased and they're about to miss their opportunity. That's what scares me. That's what scares me after. Yeah, my friends,
Unknown Speaker 15:02
we're seeing a big we're seeing a migration of home ownership like we've never seen since the 80s. We're talking almost 40 years ago. The problem is, is people are looking in the rearview mirror of how easy it was to purchase of house and are not focused on the windshield of what's to come. And there's a big shift coming right now to where our kids, you know, you are you are in our kids who are, you know, from 12 years old to 18 years old. 80% of them, unfortunately, are not going to feel the love of homeownership, right. And it's because of the opportunity and because of the economic ability, it's just not going to be there. And so that window is closing to the point where in five years, it's going to be the norm to rent because of the disparity in the difference between rent to ownership. And people are going to miss that boat if they continue to wait for sure.
Unknown Speaker 16:00
That's absolutely right. And that's what I'm telling my friends and family you know, hey, if you have an opportunity, if you have over a 640 credit score, you've been on your job, any job for two years. You know, it's a five minute conversation with Mr. Valentino. 702984 3700. Again, 702-984-3700 Listen, you guys are a first time homebuyer if you've been renting for the last three years. Isn't that right, Anthony? They're considered a first time homebuyer. The
Unknown Speaker 16:30
biggest the biggest roadblock for people in homeownership is themselves. And it's because of the perception that they think is needed for homeownership. There is no obstacle in your way or my way to get our buyers where they need to be for homeownership. There is no no and are in our dictionary. It's what do they want to do and reverse engineer it and show them the exact path, whether it takes them a day, or whether it takes them a year or whether it takes them five years? The point is, ask the question, take the first step and see what that path is for homeownership.
Unknown Speaker 17:06
Absolutely. And then there's so many people out there right now renting, renting and paying $3,000 a month for rent. It's like listen, the same process you did when you rent it, you gave them your social, they ran your credit, guess what they did a hard pool and took points away when they did that. Mr. Valentino does a Soft Pool. He doesn't even take points away when he checks your credit, and gives you a game plan is never know, it might be a knot right now. But here's the way to get there. Or guess what, a lot of times my buyers are very shocked and happy when Mr. Valentino sends me their approval letter, and we're out shopping, isn't that right?
Unknown Speaker 17:45
Yeah, I mean, that's the thing is, is, you know, you want to make sure that when you're shopping for a house, you know, your payment, you know, your out of pocket, you know, everything, your confidence. So when you walk in that house, the second you want it, it's yours, you can just sign the dotted line and you don't have to worry can I afford this? What is the payment? What is the out of pocket? What is the logistics? You and I set the client up for success by being proactive? And answering all the questions that a lot of people unfortunately don't do until they have to be reactive, and they're already in contract. And like, oh my gosh, I don't know if I can afford this or how much it's gonna cost. We don't operate that way we operate a nice fine tuned machine. Absolutely,
Unknown Speaker 18:26
absolutely. Knowledge is key, you have to be comfortable with what you're paying. And understand, you know, and understand that. So I think that we are at a point now where rent in many cases is more expensive than then will because because of what we do, like you said, we put them a lot of times in the can you explain three one bite down for them to understand, because we use that quite often, many of our buyers, they choose to do that because they understand it's buying them time, because we know the rates are coming down. So
Unknown Speaker 18:54
yeah, it's economics, I mean, traditionally, people would buy the rate down for the full 30 years. So if you have a 6.5 rate, and you take 10,000, and you combine it down to a 6.25, you save a quarter percent, you're saving $70 a month, but then it's gonna take you seven to eight years of saving $70 a month to meet what you what was costed out of pocket in the beginning. That is fine. If it's long term, meaning the rates are low, and they're expected to go up. But when we're in a market, which is different than where our rearview mirror is, the rates are now only expected to go down. So when you have that, you have to look at the breakeven and it doesn't make sense to buy down the rate for the full 30 years and only save a little bit when we can push all of that savings into the first part of the loan and hyper accelerate the savings. So instead of dropping the rate a quarter percent we dropped the rate 2% And we do that because we're hedging ourselves against the market knowing that the math makes sense. And I rather save $700 a month on my payment for the first year, $500 a month on my payment for the second year, and then refinancing year three. And because we know where the markets heading, we see where it's going. That gives us the comfortability. And on top of that, it's still a fixed rate. So even if for some reason something changes two years down the line, it's not an arm, it's not a balloon, we approve you based off of the worst case scenario, but we set you up for short term and long term. Absolutely.
Unknown Speaker 20:26
And so he went over even just you know, for his instance, one of our clients, their numbers was around $3,200, for the first year $3,500. And what we're talking about is the monthly payment, you guys. So what it does, is it, it buys you time and makes your monthly payment, like he said, five to $700 less, you know, and it does that for a couple years, while you're waiting out the chance to refi there is no waiting period, people think that there's like a year or two years waiting period, Anthony to refinance their house.
Unknown Speaker 20:55
Yeah, there's no waiting period, whether it's six months, or whether it's six years, as long as the primary residence or secondary residence, then there's no prepayment penalty, or early, you know, pay off like an investment does, where people can see a one two or three year where they get hit with a certain percentage. If you're buying for primary or secondary, you basically follow the rates. And if it makes sense, and the math doesn't lie, then yeah, let's refinance. Let's save that money. Absolutely.
Unknown Speaker 21:22
So and just to kind of break it down into quick, layman's terms. If you buy a house today, at the current rate, let's say that your normal payment would be $3,800. For this house, the way we're doing it with many of our buyers, we are saying, okay, year one, your payments gonna be $3,000, year to year payments gonna be $3,500. If you make it to year three, it will be fixed three through 30 at your original payment of $3,800. So that buys you time to wait for the rates to go ahead and drop down like they're supposed to. But like Anthony said, if they don't, then you're just gonna have the same rate you would have paid from day one. But does that make sense? I hope I explained that to where it makes sense.
Unknown Speaker 22:02
It is. And not only that, but unlike if you were to buy down the rate traditionally, where you have a break even period, meaning hey, if I bound buy down the rate a quarter percent and say $70 a month, it's gonna take me seven years of saving $70 a month to break even with this with the two one the one year buy down to your buy down three year buy down, you can refinance sooner. And the good part about it is say we get 15,000 from the seller, and say in seven or eight months, the you know, something goes crazy. And the rates drop a full percentage point to where you can get a rate in the lower fives or up or fours. And you don't have to wait the full two years and you're only eight months into it, what you can do is you can refinance still and say you only used 4000 out of that 15,000 And there's 11,000 left, you don't lose that money. In fact, when you refinance that 11,000 gets applied to the principal. So you either use it for the full duration and lower the lower the payment, or if you refinance sooner, that money doesn't go back to the seller or the lender, it stays with the buyer, and they put it towards the principal. And so it's a win win situation. You can refinance early or you can refinance at the end doesn't matter. Absolutely.
Unknown Speaker 23:19
And let's just touch on the downpayment assistance programs. They're coming back around I've been talking about their comparable to the today's rate. Right, Anthony? So if we could just touch on AR what is it? 640 credit score, two years on the job, they can get up to what 4% 5%?
Unknown Speaker 23:36
Yeah, there's multiple state and federal grants out there. So yeah, I mean, so basically, you just want to make sure that you're looking at all options on the table. What I show my clients is, here's your options, whether you want to do full downpayment assistance, partial downpayment assistance, minimum down first time homebuyer standard. And so that way they can see, here's my rate, here's my payment, here's my out of pocket, and then they can choose what's going to be the best program for them.
Unknown Speaker 24:07
Just so they know to you don't have to be a first time homebuyer for some of the programs that you have, right? That's
Unknown Speaker 24:13
correct. Yeah, you don't have to be a first time homebuyer is there's even some where if you currently own a house, but you're buying a primary they will allow you so it just really depends on your situation. And that's where you and I come in to really show them what options are available.
Unknown Speaker 24:29
Absolutely. And one last thing I want to point out for the buyers 580 credit score, if you have your own downpayment, isn't that right Anthony?
Unknown Speaker 24:38
You can even go as low as 560. Sometimes you just have to have compensating factors that they have, you know, low debt to income ratio, or they have extensive assets. I've seen people at you know 565 70 get in for three and a half percent down because of those compensating factors
Unknown Speaker 24:55
and then my retire people that are on fixed incomes, but they're make pretty good you no income, they can buy investment properties based off of the property's gain. Is that correct? Anthony?
Unknown Speaker 25:08
Right. Yeah, that's a DSCR loan debt service ratio collateral loan, where basically, it's not based off of the person's income, it's based off at the output of the investment. And as long as the investment payment is the same as the the rent, then that is called a 1%. DSCR. There's also DSCR programs where it's
Unknown Speaker 25:32
less, but yeah, yeah. So thank you so much, Anthony. It's always such a pleasure to have you come on, and share your knowledge with us. And that number in case they want to reach out to Anthony Valentino is 702-984-3700. Here to answer the questions that you may have and get your going. Five minute conversation. And Anthony can tell you if you are approved, or hey, this is what you need to do to get approved. Right, Anthony? That's right. That's
Unknown Speaker 25:59
just knowledge is power. And my job is to educate and get them competent.
Unknown Speaker 26:03
I love it. Well, thank you so much. Have a great weekend, Anthony. Okay, guys, let's pivot now to my sellers. If you are living in the Henderson or southwest area, Summerlin centennial, let me tell you, I mean anywhere in the Valley really, because once again, we are in a an extreme shortage of homes. So I can list the property for you, we will get top dollar, and you'll be a happy camper like my last Lister seller, seller, sorry, they're very happy. We're top dollar, we're closing about five this month. So if you're interested in selling, I'm here to assist 702984 3700 That is what I do. And I do that personally, in my team takes a lot of my buyers out. And I do take buyers out too. But I am mainly a listing agent, and I list the properties for you. Let me give you some idea what I mean, if you live in the 89139 area, and you have a property that you'd like to list, or you're thinking about selling, let me share something with you. If that home is worth around 500,000 there are zero, okay, zero properties for sale. That means your property will fly off the shelf, you will get top dollar because 89139 doesn't have any right now for sale. Okay, if you're at an 800,000 price point, there's about 18 in that entire zip code for sale. Okay, now I run these numbers a couple of days ago, but yeah, 18 That's, that's where you're at, if you're looking at 800,000 or less. In 89139 area, there's only 18 homes, you guys. So if you have a property that you think is worth around that much, yes, it's gonna fly off the shelf. If you have a property that's a million dollars, plus there's only four for an 89139 Southern Highlands area. Okay. Now, if you're in Henderson on 8905 to McDonald's Ranch area, and you have a property that you think is worth around 500,000 or less, there's only three properties listed. That means you have three properties that are your competition. Okay, so that tells you right there we will get this property sold quickly. So once again, if you have a property that's 800,000 or less in the 89052 area, which is McDonald's Ranch area in Henderson, there's only seven homes that will be competition for you. Seven, okay, if you have a million dollar plus home and the 89052 area you only have 19 So you got you know, a little something 19 homes. Now if you're over there and Centennial Hills 89149 $500,000 or less, you're looking at five homes as your competition's Alright, if you're $100,000 or less, we're looking at 11 homes. My number is 702984 3700 I am oni Buchanan, your local Las Vegas Real tour your K u n be real tour and I'm here to assist. Okay, my website is welcome home with monique.com you can check me out on Youtube. Welcome home with Monique and my Instagram is at realtor Monique Buchanan and that's bu ch a n a n. And so listen I want you guys have an amazing weekend. And until I hear from you. Glory be to the Lord. Have a great weekend. Thank you for listening. Please remember all terms discussed are simply an estimate my license number is S 1788 46. My phone number if you'd like to contact me is 702-984-3700. You can also find me on YouTube and please join me tomorrow at my church Living Word Church on hassle. I'm part of the EXP Realty Group.
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